Fortuna Hjørring W 3–0 AGF W: Result & Stats

Fortuna Hjørring W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

AGF W

10/5/2024

Kvindeliga · Round 8Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Fortuna Hjørring W60%

×Draw22%

AGF W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Hjørring WExpected goals in this matchAGF W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.92

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.88

AGF W

0.92

Fortuna Hjørring W creates 104% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 57 away

1.85

creates per match

0.89

0.95

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.85

AGF W

0.89

allows per match

Fortuna Hjørring W

0.95

AGF W

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par

AGF W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Hjørring W ↓

AGF W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fortuna Hjørring W or draw

82%

Fortuna Hjørring W or AGF W

78%

Draw or AGF W

40%

Winning margin

Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+

35%

AGF W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals

85%

Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals

56%

Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals

29%

AGF W 1+ goals

60%

AGF W 2+ goals

23%

AGF W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)

77%

AGF W (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Hjørring W at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

AGF W away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.91 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.85 + AGF W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.88

AGF W attack 0.89 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fortuna Hjørring W scores more

60%

level

22%

AGF W scores more

18%

Fortuna Hjørring W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fortuna Hjørring W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff