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Fortuna Dusseldorf vs FC Schalke 04 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
11/25/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 14Düsseldorf Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf44%
×Draw24%
FC Schalke 0432%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.62
FC Schalke 04
1.36

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 19% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 68 away

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.77
FC Schalke 04
1.41

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.31
FC Schalke 04
1.47

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par
FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

FC Schalke 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw
68%
Fortuna Dusseldorf or FC Schalke 04
76%
Draw or FC Schalke 04
56%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
22%
FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
80%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
48%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
22%
FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
74%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
39%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
58%
FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.77 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.62

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.41 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
44%
level
24%
FC Schalke 04 scores more
32%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs FC Schalke 04

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat FC Schalke 04 5-3 in 2. Bundesliga on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Düsseldorf Arena in Düsseldorf.