Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 4–1 Alemannia Aachen U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Alemannia Aachen U19

A. Holl 82', 15' (pen)

R. Arabaci 17'

K. Suso 8'

L. Jashari 47'

9/23/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 6Paul-Janes-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1955%

×Draw21%

Alemannia Aachen U1924%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19Expected goals in this matchAlemannia Aachen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.39

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

2.17

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.39

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 60 away

1.80

creates per match

1.23

1.54

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.80

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.23

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.54

Alemannia Aachen U19

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 ↓

Alemannia Aachen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or draw

76%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or Alemannia Aachen U19

79%

Draw or Alemannia Aachen U19

45%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

33%

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

89%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

64%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

36%

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

75%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

40%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.54 · 69 matches

Alemannia Aachen U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.80 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.17

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.23 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

55%

level

21%

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

K. Suso

15'

A. HollPenalty

17'

R. Arabaci

46'

J. Kuckertz← E. Oulahyane

47'

L. Jashari

62'

K. Affo← L. Çalışkan

62'

K. Engelmann← Yang Si-Woo

77'

L. Busch← A. Abdi

82'

A. Holl

83'

A. Eglenovic← L. Mirgartz

83'

M. Sviderskyi← M. Fork

85'

K. Knelles← K. Suso

85'

S. Cankirli← A. Camara

85'

J. Hoss← A. Tykhanov

Fortuna

Alemannia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Manager: J. Langeneke

62'▲K. Affo←▼L. Çalışkan

62'▲K. Engelmann←▼Yang Si-Woo

85'▲K. Knelles←▼K. Suso

85'▲S. Cankirli←▼A. Camara

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

AffoEngelmannKnellesCankirliStarekLangenbruchGeisler

Manager: V. Moshensky

46'▲J. Kuckertz←▼E. Oulahyane

77'▲L. Busch←▼A. Abdi

83'▲A. Eglenovic←▼L. Mirgartz

83'▲M. Sviderskyi←▼M. Fork

85'▲J. Hoss←▼A. Tykhanov

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

KuckertzBuschEglenovicSviderskyiHossHeinischTanaka

U19 Bundesliga: Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 4–1 Alemannia Aachen U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 beat Alemannia Aachen U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 23, 2023.

Goals: K. Suso (8'), A. Holl (15' pen, 82'), R. Arabaci (17'), L. Jashari (47').

The match was played at Paul-Janes-Stadion in Düsseldorf.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 vs Alemannia Aachen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 4–1 Alemannia Aachen U19