Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2–1 Alemannia Aachen U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alemannia Aachen U19

L. Thissen 90'

N. Garić 83'

D. Sinanoglu 46'

10/17/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 5Paul-Janes-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1956%

×Draw21%

Alemannia Aachen U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19Expected goals in this matchAlemannia Aachen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.36

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

2.17

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.36

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 59 away

1.78

creates per match

1.19

1.54

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.78

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.19

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.54

Alemannia Aachen U19

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 ↓

Alemannia Aachen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or draw

76%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or Alemannia Aachen U19

79%

Draw or Alemannia Aachen U19

44%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

34%

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

89%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

64%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

36%

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

74%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

39%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.54 · 68 matches

Alemannia Aachen U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.56 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.78 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.17

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.19 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

56%

level

21%

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

F. Schäfer← T. Kondziella

46'

D. Sinanoglu

62'

N. Garić← M. Stüttgen

62'

J. Meyer← S. Soghomonian

73'

N. Gatzke← L. Wagemann

83'

N. Garić

87'

A. Colak← L. Wesemann

90+1'

T. Weingarten← E. Kalonji

90'

O. Keskin← A. Ivic

90'

P. Steffens← L. Kozlyuk

90'

L. Thissen

Fortuna

Alemannia

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Suker

62'▲N. Garić←▼M. Stüttgen

62'▲J. Meyer←▼S. Soghomonian

73'▲N. Gatzke←▼L. Wagemann

90+1'▲T. Weingarten←▼E. Kalonji

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

GarićMeyerGatzkeWeingartenYilmazReitmaierGiesen

Manager: D. Bozek

44'▲F. Schäfer←▼T. Kondziella

87'▲A. Colak←▼L. Wesemann

90'▲O. Keskin←▼A. Ivic

90'▲P. Steffens←▼L. Kozlyuk

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

SchäferColakKeskinSteffensOugandouPetrySaid