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Fortuna Ålesund W vs TIL 2020 W — 1. Division Women 2022

Fortuna Ålesund W
Fortuna Ålesund W
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
TIL 2020 W
TIL 2020 W
6/10/20231. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 10Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Fortuna Ålesund W52%
×Draw22%
TIL 2020 W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Ålesund W
1.97
TIL 2020 W
1.36

Fortuna Ålesund W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 49 away

creates per match

Fortuna Ålesund W
2.51
TIL 2020 W
1.61

allows per match

Fortuna Ålesund W
1.11
TIL 2020 W
1.43

finishing

Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par
TIL 2020 W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Ålesund W ↓

TIL 2020 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Fortuna Ålesund W or draw
73%
Fortuna Ålesund W or TIL 2020 W
78%
Draw or TIL 2020 W
48%

Winning margin

Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+
30%
TIL 2020 W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals
86%
Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals
58%
Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals
31%
TIL 2020 W 1+ goals
74%
TIL 2020 W 2+ goals
39%
TIL 2020 W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)
66%
TIL 2020 W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Ålesund W at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.11 · 47 matches

TIL 2020 W away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 2.51 + TIL 2020 W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.97

TIL 2020 W attack 1.61 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fortuna Ålesund W scores more
52%
level
22%
TIL 2020 W scores more
27%

Fortuna Ålesund W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fortuna Ålesund W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: Fortuna Ålesund W 4–2 TIL 2020 W

Fortuna Ålesund W beat TIL 2020 W 4-2 in 1. Division Women on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.