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Fortis vs Mohammedan Dhaka — Premier League 2019

Fortis
Fortis
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
12/22/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Rajshahi District Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fortis35%
×Draw28%
Mohammedan Dhaka37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortis
1.17
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 77 away

creates per match

Fortis
1.22
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.57

allows per match

Fortis
0.86
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.13

finishing

Fortis+0.00on par
Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortis ↓

Mohammedan Dhaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fortis or draw
63%
Fortis or Mohammedan Dhaka
72%
Draw or Mohammedan Dhaka
65%

Winning margin

Fortis wins by 2+
14%
Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fortis 1+ goals
69%
Fortis 2+ goals
33%
Fortis 3+ goals
11%
Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
70%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
34%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fortis (draw refunded)
48%
Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortis at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Mohammedan Dhaka away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortis attack 1.22 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.57 + Fortis defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fortis scores more
35%
level
28%
Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
37%

Mohammedan Dhaka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mohammedan Dhaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Fortis 1–2 Mohammedan Dhaka

Mohammedan Dhaka beat Fortis 2-1 in Premier League on December 22, 2023.

The match was played at Rajshahi District Stadium in Rajshahi.