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Fortis vs Brothers Union — Premier League 2019

Fortis
Fortis
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Brothers Union
Brothers Union
2/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Rajshahi District Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fortis55%
×Draw24%
Brothers Union21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortis
1.71
Brothers Union
0.96

Fortis creates 78% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 53 away

creates per match

Fortis
1.22
Brothers Union
1.06

allows per match

Fortis
0.86
Brothers Union
2.19

finishing

Fortis+0.00on par
Brothers Union+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortis ↓

Brothers Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fortis or draw
79%
Fortis or Brothers Union
76%
Draw or Brothers Union
45%

Winning margin

Fortis wins by 2+
30%
Brothers Union wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fortis 1+ goals
82%
Fortis 2+ goals
51%
Fortis 3+ goals
24%
Brothers Union 1+ goals
62%
Brothers Union 2+ goals
25%
Brothers Union 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fortis (draw refunded)
72%
Brothers Union (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortis at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Brothers Union away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortis attack 1.22 + Brothers Union defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.71

Brothers Union attack 1.06 + Fortis defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fortis scores more
55%
level
24%
Brothers Union scores more
21%

Fortis at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortis vs Brothers Union

Fortis and Brothers Union drew 2-2 in Premier League on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Rajshahi District Stadium in Rajshahi.