Fortis 0–1 Bashundhara Kings: Result & Stats

Fortis

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bashundhara Kings

12/26/2023

Federation Cup · Group Stage - 1Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fortis19%

×Draw22%

Bashundhara Kings59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FortisExpected goals in this matchBashundhara Kings

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.90

Fortis

0.98

Bashundhara Kings

1.90

Bashundhara Kings creates 94% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.29

creates per match

2.67

1.14

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Fortis

1.29

Bashundhara Kings

2.67

allows per match

Fortis

1.14

Bashundhara Kings

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortis+0.00on par

Bashundhara Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortis ↓

Bashundhara Kings →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fortis or draw

41%

Fortis or Bashundhara Kings

78%

Draw or Bashundhara Kings

81%

Winning margin

Fortis wins by 2+

7%

Bashundhara Kings wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Fortis 1+ goals

62%

Fortis 2+ goals

26%

Fortis 3+ goals

8%

Bashundhara Kings 1+ goals

85%

Bashundhara Kings 2+ goals

56%

Bashundhara Kings 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Fortis (draw refunded)

25%

Bashundhara Kings (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortis at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Bashundhara Kings away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortis attack 1.29 + Bashundhara Kings defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Bashundhara Kings attack 2.67 + Fortis defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fortis scores more

19%

level

22%

Bashundhara Kings scores more

59%

Bashundhara Kings at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bashundhara Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff