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Fortis vs Bangladesh Police — Premier League 2019

Fortis
Fortis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bangladesh Police
Bangladesh Police
2/16/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Rajshahi District Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fortis41%
×Draw28%
Bangladesh Police31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortis
1.23
Bangladesh Police
1.03

Fortis creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 62 away

creates per match

Fortis
1.22
Bangladesh Police
1.21

allows per match

Fortis
0.86
Bangladesh Police
1.24

finishing

Fortis+0.00on par
Bangladesh Police+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortis ↓

Bangladesh Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fortis or draw
69%
Fortis or Bangladesh Police
72%
Draw or Bangladesh Police
59%

Winning margin

Fortis wins by 2+
18%
Bangladesh Police wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fortis 1+ goals
71%
Fortis 2+ goals
35%
Fortis 3+ goals
13%
Bangladesh Police 1+ goals
64%
Bangladesh Police 2+ goals
28%
Bangladesh Police 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fortis (draw refunded)
57%
Bangladesh Police (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortis at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Bangladesh Police away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.24 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortis attack 1.22 + Bangladesh Police defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bangladesh Police attack 1.21 + Fortis defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fortis scores more
41%
level
28%
Bangladesh Police scores more
31%

Fortis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Fortis 2–1 Bangladesh Police

Fortis beat Bangladesh Police 2-1 in Premier League on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Rajshahi District Stadium in Rajshahi.