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Forte Taganrog vs Spartak Nalchik — Second League - Group 1 2020

Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Nalchik
Spartak Nalchik
10/17/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Forte Arena Taganrog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Forte Taganrog54%
×Draw24%
Spartak Nalchik22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forte Taganrog
1.68
Spartak Nalchik
0.98

Forte Taganrog creates 71% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 96 away

creates per match

Forte Taganrog
2.02
Spartak Nalchik
1.24

allows per match

Forte Taganrog
0.73
Spartak Nalchik
1.33

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par
Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Spartak Nalchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw
78%
Forte Taganrog or Spartak Nalchik
76%
Draw or Spartak Nalchik
46%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
29%
Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
81%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
50%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
24%
Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals
62%
Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals
26%
Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
71%
Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.73 · 63 matches

Spartak Nalchik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 2.02 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.68

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.24 + Forte Taganrog defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more
54%
level
24%
Spartak Nalchik scores more
22%

Forte Taganrog at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Forte Taganrog 0–0 Spartak Nalchik

Forte Taganrog and Spartak Nalchik drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Forte Arena Taganrog in Taganrog.