Forte Taganrog 0–1 Kuban Kholding: Result & Stats

Forte Taganrog

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kuban Kholding

8/5/2020

Cup · 1st RoundForte Arena Taganrog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Forte Taganrog22%

×Draw26%

Kuban Kholding51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forte TaganrogExpected goals in this matchKuban Kholding

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.50

Forte Taganrog

0.89

Kuban Kholding

1.50

Kuban Kholding creates 69% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

0.88

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Forte Taganrog

0.88

Kuban Kholding

2.00

allows per match

Forte Taganrog

1.00

Kuban Kholding

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Kuban Kholding →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw

49%

Forte Taganrog or Kuban Kholding

74%

Draw or Kuban Kholding

78%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+

7%

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals

59%

Forte Taganrog 2+ goals

22%

Forte Taganrog 3+ goals

6%

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals

78%

Kuban Kholding 2+ goals

44%

Kuban Kholding 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)

30%

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 0.88 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Kuban Kholding attack 2.00 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more

22%

level

26%

Kuban Kholding scores more

51%

Kuban Kholding at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff