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Forte Taganrog vs Druzhba — Cup 2019

Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Druzhba
Druzhba
7/18/2021CupCup · 1st RoundForte Arena Taganrog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Forte Taganrog52%
×Draw26%
Druzhba22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forte Taganrog
1.54
Druzhba
0.90

Forte Taganrog creates 71% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Forte Taganrog
0.88
Druzhba
0.80

allows per match

Forte Taganrog
1.00
Druzhba
2.20

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par
Druzhba+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Druzhba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw
78%
Forte Taganrog or Druzhba
74%
Draw or Druzhba
48%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
27%
Druzhba wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
79%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
45%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
20%
Druzhba 1+ goals
59%
Druzhba 2+ goals
23%
Druzhba 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
70%
Druzhba (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Druzhba away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 0.88 + Druzhba defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.54

Druzhba attack 0.80 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more
52%
level
26%
Druzhba scores more
22%

Forte Taganrog at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Forte Taganrog 3–0 Druzhba

Forte Taganrog beat Druzhba 3-0 in Cup on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Forte Arena Taganrog in Taganrog.