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Forte Taganrog vs Dinamo Stavropol — Second League - Group 1 2020

Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
8/9/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Forte Arena Taganrog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Forte Taganrog55%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Stavropol21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forte Taganrog
1.71
Dinamo Stavropol
0.97

Forte Taganrog creates 76% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 92 away

creates per match

Forte Taganrog
2.02
Dinamo Stavropol
1.22

allows per match

Forte Taganrog
0.73
Dinamo Stavropol
1.39

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par
Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw
79%
Forte Taganrog or Dinamo Stavropol
76%
Draw or Dinamo Stavropol
45%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
30%
Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
82%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
51%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
24%
Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
62%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
25%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
72%
Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.73 · 63 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 2.02 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.71

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Forte Taganrog defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more
55%
level
24%
Dinamo Stavropol scores more
21%

Forte Taganrog at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forte Taganrog vs Dinamo Stavropol

Forte Taganrog beat Dinamo Stavropol 4-0 in Second League - Group 1 on August 9, 2020.

The match was played at Forte Arena Taganrog in Taganrog.