Fortaleza W 0–5 Santa Fe W: Result & Stats

Fortaleza W

FT

0 – 5

Santa Fe W

10/29/2020

Liga Femenina · Group Stage - 4Estadio Villa Olímpica de Chía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fortaleza W17%

×Draw24%

Santa Fe W59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza WExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.70

Fortaleza W

0.80

Santa Fe W

1.70

Santa Fe W creates 113% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 64 away

0.81

creates per match

1.78

1.61

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Fortaleza W

0.81

Santa Fe W

1.78

allows per match

Fortaleza W

1.61

Santa Fe W

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza W+0.00on par

Santa Fe W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza W ↓

Santa Fe W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fortaleza W or draw

41%

Fortaleza W or Santa Fe W

76%

Draw or Santa Fe W

83%

Winning margin

Fortaleza W wins by 2+

5%

Santa Fe W wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Fortaleza W 1+ goals

55%

Fortaleza W 2+ goals

19%

Fortaleza W 3+ goals

5%

Santa Fe W 1+ goals

82%

Santa Fe W 2+ goals

51%

Santa Fe W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza W (draw refunded)

23%

Santa Fe W (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza W at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

Santa Fe W away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza W attack 0.81 + Santa Fe W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Santa Fe W attack 1.78 + Fortaleza W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fortaleza W scores more

17%

level

24%

Santa Fe W scores more

59%

Santa Fe W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Santa Fe W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff