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Fortaleza U17 vs Flamengo RJ U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Fortaleza U17
Fortaleza U17
Preview
18:00
Flamengo RJ U17
Flamengo RJ U17
8/5/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 10
46%
Fortaleza U17
model favours
46%25%29%

Fortaleza U17 score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Fortaleza U1746%
×Draw25%
Flamengo RJ U1729%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza U17
1.61
Flamengo RJ U17
1.23

Fortaleza U17 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Fortaleza U17
1.79
Flamengo RJ U17
1.56

allows per match

Fortaleza U17
0.89
Flamengo RJ U17
1.44

finishing

Fortaleza U17+0.00on par
Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza U17 ↓

Flamengo RJ U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Fortaleza U17 or draw
71%
Fortaleza U17 or Flamengo RJ U17
75%
Draw or Flamengo RJ U17
54%

Winning margin

Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+
24%
Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fortaleza U17 1+ goals
80%
Fortaleza U17 2+ goals
48%
Fortaleza U17 3+ goals
22%
Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals
71%
Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals
35%
Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)
61%
Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza U17 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Flamengo RJ U17 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza U17 attack 1.79 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 1.56 + Fortaleza U17 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fortaleza U17 scores more
46%
level
25%
Flamengo RJ U17 scores more
29%

Fortaleza U17 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fortaleza U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Flamengo RJ U17 score first in only 20% of matches
  • Flamengo RJ U17 have won 3 in a row
  • Flamengo RJ U17 are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Fortaleza U17 sit 18, Flamengo RJ U17 5 in the table
  • Flamengo RJ U17 have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 73% of Flamengo RJ U17’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
LLDWW
U17
WWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fortaleza U17 host Flamengo RJ U17

August 5, 2026: Fortaleza U17 take on Flamengo RJ U17 in Brasileiro U17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.