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Fortaleza U17 vs Bahia U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Fortaleza U17
Fortaleza U17
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bahia U17
Bahia U17
Unknown 90'
7/30/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 5Centro de Treinamento Ribamar Bezerra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Fortaleza U1765%
×Draw21%
Bahia U1714%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza U17
1.98
Bahia U17
0.78

Fortaleza U17 creates 154% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Fortaleza U17
1.79
Bahia U17
0.67

allows per match

Fortaleza U17
0.89
Bahia U17
2.17

finishing

Fortaleza U17+0.00on par
Bahia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza U17 ↓

Bahia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fortaleza U17 or draw
86%
Fortaleza U17 or Bahia U17
79%
Draw or Bahia U17
35%

Winning margin

Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+
40%
Bahia U17 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Fortaleza U17 1+ goals
86%
Fortaleza U17 2+ goals
59%
Fortaleza U17 3+ goals
31%
Bahia U17 1+ goals
54%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
18%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)
82%
Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza U17 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Bahia U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza U17 attack 1.79 + Bahia U17 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Bahia U17 attack 0.67 + Fortaleza U17 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fortaleza U17 scores more
65%
level
21%
Bahia U17 scores more
14%

Fortaleza U17 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Fortaleza U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Fortaleza U17 1–0 Bahia U17

Fortaleza U17 beat Bahia U17 1-0 in Brasileiro U17 on July 30, 2024.

Goals: ? (90').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Ribamar Bezerra in Maracanaú, Ceará.