Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fortaleza U17 vs America MG U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Fortaleza U17
Fortaleza U17
Preview
20:00
America MG U17
America MG U17
8/18/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 12
60%
Fortaleza U17
model favours
60%21%19%

Fortaleza U17 score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Fortaleza U1760%
×Draw21%
America MG U1719%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza U17
2.09
America MG U17
1.08

Fortaleza U17 creates 94% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Fortaleza U17
1.79
America MG U17
1.28

allows per match

Fortaleza U17
0.89
America MG U17
2.39

finishing

Fortaleza U17+0.00on par
America MG U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza U17 ↓

America MG U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fortaleza U17 or draw
81%
Fortaleza U17 or America MG U17
79%
Draw or America MG U17
40%

Winning margin

Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+
37%
America MG U17 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fortaleza U17 1+ goals
88%
Fortaleza U17 2+ goals
62%
Fortaleza U17 3+ goals
34%
America MG U17 1+ goals
66%
America MG U17 2+ goals
29%
America MG U17 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)
76%
America MG U17 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza U17 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

America MG U17 away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza U17 attack 1.79 + America MG U17 defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.09

America MG U17 attack 1.28 + Fortaleza U17 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fortaleza U17 scores more
60%
level
21%
America MG U17 scores more
19%

Fortaleza U17 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fortaleza U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U17
LLDWW
U17
DLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fortaleza U17 host America MG U17

August 18, 2026: Fortaleza U17 take on America MG U17 in Brasileiro U17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.