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Fortaleza FC vs Tigres FC — Copa Colombia 2026

Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tigres FC
Tigres FC
D. Cuperman 45' (pen)
D. Peñaloza 71'
3/21/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Group Stage - 3Estadio Municipal de Cota (Cota)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Fortaleza FC48%
×Draw32%
Tigres FC20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza FC
1.14
Tigres FC
0.63

Fortaleza FC creates 81% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Fortaleza FC
1.10
Tigres FC
0.50

allows per match

Fortaleza FC
0.75
Tigres FC
1.17

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par
Tigres FC+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Tigres FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw
80%
Fortaleza FC or Tigres FC
68%
Draw or Tigres FC
52%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
21%
Tigres FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
68%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
32%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
11%
Tigres FC 1+ goals
47%
Tigres FC 2+ goals
13%
Tigres FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
70%
Tigres FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Tigres FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.10 + Tigres FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Tigres FC attack 0.50 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more
48%
level
32%
Tigres FC scores more
20%

Fortaleza FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
D. CupermanPenalty
71'
D. Peñaloza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fortaleza FC 1 – 1 Tigres FC

Fortaleza FC and Tigres FC drew 1-1 in Copa Colombia on March 21, 2019.

Goals: D. Cuperman (45' pen), D. Peñaloza (71').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Cota (Cota).