Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fortaleza FC vs Santa Fe — Primera A 2018

Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Santa Fe
Santa Fe
9/22/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Fortaleza FC39%
×Draw31%
Santa Fe30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza FC
1.06
Santa Fe
0.89

Fortaleza FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fortaleza FC
0.90
Santa Fe
0.76

allows per match

Fortaleza FC
1.01
Santa Fe
1.22

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.50scores more
Santa Fe+0.57scores more

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Santa Fe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw
70%
Fortaleza FC or Santa Fe
69%
Draw or Santa Fe
61%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
15%
Santa Fe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
65%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
29%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
9%
Santa Fe 1+ goals
59%
Santa Fe 2+ goals
22%
Santa Fe 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
57%
Santa Fe (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.01 · 10 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 0.90 + Santa Fe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Santa Fe attack 0.76 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more
39%
level
31%
Santa Fe scores more
30%

Fortaleza FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortaleza FC vs Santa Fe

Santa Fe beat Fortaleza FC 3-1 in Primera A on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..