Fortaleza FC 2–0 Once Caldas: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Once Caldas

A. Parra 69'

J. Arrieta 52'

4/13/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 16Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Fortaleza FC36%

×Draw31%

Once Caldas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.97

Fortaleza FC

1.02

Once Caldas

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

0.88

creates per match

0.92

1.02

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

0.88

Once Caldas

0.92

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

1.02

Once Caldas

1.17

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.57scores more

Once Caldas+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

67%

Fortaleza FC or Once Caldas

69%

Draw or Once Caldas

64%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

14%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

64%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

27%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

8%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

62%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

25%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

52%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.02 · 11 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 0.88 + Once Caldas defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Once Caldas attack 0.92 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

36%

level

31%

Once Caldas scores more

33%

Fortaleza FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

R. Pájaro

Fortaleza FC · M

7.9

Match Events

36'

Juan Patiño

44'

Ronaldo Pajaro

46'

E. Beltrán← R. Torres

46'

S. Palacios← J. Patiño

52'

J. Arrieta↳ R. Pájaro

53'

C. Hinestroza← H. Palacios

54'

I. Anderson← Juan Camilo Castillo

61'

J. Garcia← I. Rojas

61'

L. Palacios← J. Araujo

65'

S. Navarro← J. Arrieta

69'

A. Parra↳ S. Navarro

70'

Alejandro García

74'

S. Cubides← J. Cuesta

76'

Juan García

79'

J. Barrera← R. Pájaro

80'

J. Salas← N. Rodríguez

89'

Luis Palacios

90'

Adrián Parra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaOnce

Overview

55%Possession45%

19Total Shots13

2Corners4

8Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots13

7On Target1

5Off Target3

7Blocked9

10Inside Box5

9Outside Box8

Passing

55%Possession45%

437Total Passes347

355Accurate Passes257

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas

Fortaleza FC beat Once Caldas 2-0 in Primera A on April 13, 2024.

Goals: J. Arrieta (52'), A. Parra (69').

Fortaleza FC controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..

Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas