Fortaleza FC 1–2 Llaneros: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Llaneros

K. Aladesanmi 45+3'

D. Echeverri 75' (pen)

B. Urueña 20'

10/15/2022

Primera B · Clausura - Quadrangular - 1Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Fortaleza FC50%

×Draw26%

Llaneros25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchLlaneros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.99

Fortaleza FC

1.53

Llaneros

0.99

Fortaleza FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 125 away

1.89

creates per match

1.01

0.97

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

1.89

Llaneros

1.01

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

0.97

Llaneros

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Llaneros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Llaneros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

75%

Fortaleza FC or Llaneros

74%

Draw or Llaneros

50%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

25%

Llaneros wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

78%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

45%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

20%

Llaneros 1+ goals

63%

Llaneros 2+ goals

26%

Llaneros 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

67%

Llaneros (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 97 matches

Llaneros away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.17 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.89 + Llaneros defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.53

Llaneros attack 1.01 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

50%

level

26%

Llaneros scores more

25%

Fortaleza FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

B. Urueña

45+3'

K. Aladesanmi

54'

S. Navarro

64'

D. Echeverri← J. Carabalí

64'

O. Vallecilla← N. Ospina

65'

J. Alvarado← S. Navarro

71'

J. Alvarado

75'

D. EcheverriPenalty

79'

J. Zabala← B. Urueña

83'

J. Narváez← J. Melendez

86'

D. Palacios← J. Mosquera

86'

J. Angulo← J. Asprilla

Fortaleza

Llaneros

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: N. Flórez

65'▲J. Alvarado←▼S. Navarro

83'▲J. Narváez←▼J. Melendez

Fortaleza FC substitutes

AlvaradoNarváezRiveraCastilloGarcíaRivaldoPalacios

Manager: J. González

64'▲D. Echeverri←▼J. Carabalí

64'▲O. Vallecilla←▼N. Ospina

79'▲J. Zabala←▼B. Urueña

86'▲D. Palacios←▼J. Mosquera

86'▲J. Angulo←▼J. Asprilla

Llaneros substitutes

EcheverriVallecillaZabalaPalaciosAnguloCadavidVelásquez