Fortaleza FC 2–1 Internacional de Bogota

Fortaleza FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Internacional de Bogota

Juan Camilo Castillo 90+6'

S. Córdoba 53' (pen)

É. Ricardo 42'

11/6/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 17Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Fortaleza FC44%

×Draw29%

Internacional de Bogota28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.93

Fortaleza FC

1.25

Internacional de Bogota

0.93

Fortaleza FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

0.93

creates per match

0.81

1.04

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

0.93

Internacional de Bogota

0.81

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

1.04

Internacional de Bogota

1.56

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.51scores more

Internacional de Bogota-0.06on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

72%

Fortaleza FC or Internacional de Bogota

71%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

56%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

20%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

71%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

36%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

13%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

61%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

24%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

61%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.04 · 9 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 0.93 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.81 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

44%

level

29%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

28%

Fortaleza FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Y. Díaz

Fortaleza FC · D

7.5

Match Events

23'

M. Payares

26'

E. Ricardo

32'

D. Polanco

42'

É. Ricardo↳ L. Escalante

45+2'

D. Rivera

46'

J. Salas← J. Barrera

53'

S. CórdobaPenalty

55'

D. Polanco

55'

D. Polanco

57'

J. Moreno← S. Gómez

58'

D. Castillo← A. Del Valle

66'

68'

72'

75'

77'

78'

B. Quiñonez← É. Ricardo

79'

K. Salazar← L. Escalante

82'

Juan Camilo Castillo← J. Salas

82'

R. Murillo← S. Córdoba

82'

J. Díaz← R. Pájaro

90+7'

J. Castillo

90+6'

Juan Camilo Castillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaInternacional

Overview

63%Possession37%

16Total Shots9

2Corners4

18Fouls21

Shots

16Total Shots9

2On Target3

9Off Target2

5Blocked4

10Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

410Total Passes235

341Accurate Passes148

83%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls21

5Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Primera A: Fortaleza FC 2–1 Internacional de Bogota

Fortaleza FC beat Internacional de Bogota 2-1 in Primera A on November 6, 2024.

Goals: É. Ricardo (42'), S. Córdoba (53' pen), Juan Camilo Castillo (90+6').

Fortaleza FC controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..

Fortaleza FC vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Fortaleza FC 2–1 Internacional de Bogota