Fortaleza FC 1–0 Deportivo Pereira: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Pereira

5/16/2024

Copa Colombia · 3rd RoundEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fortaleza FC44%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Pereira28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.96

Fortaleza FC

1.30

Deportivo Pereira

0.96

Fortaleza FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 24 away

1.10

creates per match

1.17

0.75

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

1.10

Deportivo Pereira

1.17

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

0.75

Deportivo Pereira

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Deportivo Pereira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

72%

Fortaleza FC or Deportivo Pereira

72%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira

56%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

73%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

37%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

62%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

25%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

62%

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.10 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.17 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

44%

level

28%

Deportivo Pereira scores more

28%

Fortaleza FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff