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Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2018

Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
7/30/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 3Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Fortaleza FC36%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Cali34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza FC
1.07
Deportivo Cali
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Fortaleza FC
0.90
Deportivo Cali
1.05

allows per match

Fortaleza FC
1.01
Deportivo Cali
1.24

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.50scores more
Deportivo Cali+0.25scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw
66%
Fortaleza FC or Deportivo Cali
70%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
64%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
14%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
66%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
29%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
51%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.01 · 10 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 0.90 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Deportivo Cali attack 1.05 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more
36%
level
30%
Deportivo Cali scores more
34%

Fortaleza FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Fortaleza FC 2–1 Deportivo Cali

Fortaleza FC beat Deportivo Cali 2-1 in Primera A on July 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera in Bogotá, D.C..