Fortaleza FC 1–1 Deportivo Cali: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Cali

A. Parra 66'

A. Rodríguez 10'

5/13/2022

Copa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fortaleza FC41%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Cali29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.96

Fortaleza FC

1.20

Deportivo Cali

0.96

Fortaleza FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

1.10

creates per match

1.18

0.75

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

1.10

Deportivo Cali

1.18

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

0.75

Deportivo Cali

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

71%

Fortaleza FC or Deportivo Cali

71%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

59%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

70%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

34%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

12%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

62%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

25%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

59%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.10 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Deportivo Cali attack 1.18 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

41%

level

29%

Deportivo Cali scores more

29%

Fortaleza FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Rodríguez

45+3'

Y. A. Gomez Palacio

46'

C. Lucumi← A. Rodríguez

57'

Y. González← J. Vásquez

63'

T. Gutierrez

66'

A. Parra

69'

H. Mosquera← C. Mafla

81'

A. Salazar← K. Aladesanmi

81'

J. Melendez← S. Navarro

85'

A. Balanta← Y. Congo

88'

B. Lemos← J. Solís

Fortaleza

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: N. Flórez

81'▲A. Salazar←▼K. Aladesanmi

81'▲J. Melendez←▼S. Navarro

88'▲B. Lemos←▼J. Solís

Fortaleza FC substitutes

SalazarMelendezLemosCupermanTegüéNarváezGarcía

Manager: R. Dudamel

46'▲C. Lucumi←▼A. Rodríguez

57'▲Y. González←▼J. Vásquez

69'▲H. Mosquera←▼C. Mafla

85'▲A. Balanta←▼Y. Congo

Deportivo Cali substitutes

LucumiGonzálezMosqueraBalantaAcevedoFrancoNazarit

Copa Colombia: Fortaleza FC 1–1 Deportivo Cali

Fortaleza FC and Deportivo Cali drew 1-1 in Copa Colombia on May 13, 2022.

Goals: A. Rodríguez (10'), A. Parra (66').

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..

Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Colombia: Fortaleza FC 1–1 Deportivo Cali