Fortaleza FC 0–2 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bucaramanga

J. Micolta 50'

Juan Camilo Castillo 45+2' (OG)

4/22/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 18Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Fortaleza FC36%

×Draw31%

Bucaramanga33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.96

Fortaleza FC

1.03

Bucaramanga

0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.88

creates per match

0.89

1.02

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

0.88

Bucaramanga

0.89

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

1.02

Bucaramanga

1.19

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.57scores more

Bucaramanga-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

67%

Fortaleza FC or Bucaramanga

69%

Draw or Bucaramanga

64%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

14%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

64%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

28%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

9%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

62%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

25%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

53%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.02 · 11 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 0.88 + Bucaramanga defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Bucaramanga attack 0.89 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

36%

level

31%

Bucaramanga scores more

33%

Fortaleza FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Micolta

Bucaramanga · F

7.9

Match Events

45'

Alejandro Moralez

45+2'

Juan Camilo CastilloOwn goal

50'

J. Micolta

57'

Misael Martínez

64'

H. Palacios← I. Anderson

64'

C. Hinestroza← Juan Camilo Castillo

64'

A. Zárate← J. Rodríguez

71'

J. Barrera← S. Navarro

71'

J. Salas← A. Moralez

75'

Fabián Sambueza

76'

Aldair Zarate

76'

D. Mosquera← M. Martínez

76'

F. Hinestroza← F. Sambueza

80'

Carlos Romaña

80'

E. Arango← C. Romaña

81'

D. Valencia← J. Micolta

90+1'

Cesar Hinestroza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaBucaramanga

Overview

66%Possession34%

15Total Shots8

7Corners1

12Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots8

3On Target4

6Off Target3

6Blocked1

5Inside Box5

10Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

462Total Passes245

375Accurate Passes173

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0