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Fortaleza EC vs Ceara — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ceara
Ceara
3/21/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 6Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Fortaleza EC47%
×Draw27%
Ceara26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza EC
1.42
Ceara
0.97

Fortaleza EC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 33 away

creates per match

Fortaleza EC
1.95
Ceara
1.24

allows per match

Fortaleza EC
0.70
Ceara
0.88

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.00on par
Ceara+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

Ceara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw
74%
Fortaleza EC or Ceara
73%
Draw or Ceara
53%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+
23%
Ceara wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals
76%
Fortaleza EC 2+ goals
41%
Fortaleza EC 3+ goals
17%
Ceara 1+ goals
62%
Ceara 2+ goals
25%
Ceara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)
65%
Ceara (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

Ceara away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 1.95 + Ceara defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ceara attack 1.24 + Fortaleza EC defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more
47%
level
27%
Ceara scores more
26%

Fortaleza EC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: Fortaleza EC 0–1 Ceara

Ceara beat Fortaleza EC 1-0 in Copa do Nordeste on March 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza, Ceará.