Formentera 0–0 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Formentera

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 20Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Formentera30%

×Draw26%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FormenteraExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.41

Formentera

1.13

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.41

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 44 away

1.67

creates per match

2.00

0.82

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Formentera

1.67

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Formentera

0.82

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Formentera+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Formentera ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Formentera or draw

57%

Formentera or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

74%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

70%

Winning margin

Formentera wins by 2+

12%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Formentera 1+ goals

68%

Formentera 2+ goals

31%

Formentera 3+ goals

11%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

76%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

41%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Formentera (draw refunded)

41%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Formentera at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.82 · 60 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Formentera attack 1.67 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Formentera defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Formentera scores more

30%

level

26%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

43%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

F. Mascia← José Arias

64'

Álex Mayans← Jay Romero

71'

Melo← Cala

77'

Kike Fajarnes← Solano

Formentera

Ibiza

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Iván Gómez

64'▲Álex Mayans←▼Jay Romero

Formentera substitutes

Mayans

Manager: José Pérez

56'▲F. Mascia←▼José Arias

71'▲Melo←▼Cala

77'▲Kike Fajarnes←▼Solano

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

MasciaMeloFajarnes

Match Recap: Formentera vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Formentera and Ibiza Islas Pitiusas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Sant Francesc de Formentera.

Formentera vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Formentera vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas