Forfar Athletic 1–1 Stranraer: Result & Stats

Forfar Athletic

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stranraer

12/2/2023

League Two · Round 14Station Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Forfar Athletic43%

×Draw26%

Stranraer31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forfar AthleticExpected goals in this matchStranraer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.16

Forfar Athletic

1.43

Stranraer

1.16

Forfar Athletic creates 23% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 103 away

1.32

creates per match

1.14

1.18

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Forfar Athletic

1.32

Stranraer

1.14

allows per match

Forfar Athletic

1.18

Stranraer

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forfar Athletic ↓

Stranraer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Forfar Athletic or draw

69%

Forfar Athletic or Stranraer

74%

Draw or Stranraer

57%

Winning margin

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

21%

Stranraer wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

76%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

42%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

17%

Stranraer 1+ goals

69%

Stranraer 2+ goals

32%

Stranraer 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

59%

Stranraer (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forfar Athletic at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 90 matches

Stranraer away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forfar Athletic attack 1.32 + Stranraer defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stranraer attack 1.14 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Forfar Athletic scores more

43%

level

26%

Stranraer scores more

31%

Forfar Athletic at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Forfar Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff