Forfar Athletic 2–1 Elgin City: Result & Stats

Forfar Athletic

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Elgin City

1/13/2024

League Two · Round 20Station Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Forfar Athletic45%

×Draw26%

Elgin City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forfar AthleticExpected goals in this matchElgin City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.14

Forfar Athletic

1.48

Elgin City

1.14

Forfar Athletic creates 30% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 134 away

1.32

creates per match

1.10

1.18

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Forfar Athletic

1.32

Elgin City

1.10

allows per match

Forfar Athletic

1.18

Elgin City

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Elgin City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forfar Athletic ↓

Elgin City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Forfar Athletic or draw

71%

Forfar Athletic or Elgin City

74%

Draw or Elgin City

55%

Winning margin

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

22%

Elgin City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

77%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

43%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

19%

Elgin City 1+ goals

68%

Elgin City 2+ goals

32%

Elgin City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

61%

Elgin City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forfar Athletic at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 90 matches

Elgin City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forfar Athletic attack 1.32 + Elgin City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Elgin City attack 1.10 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Forfar Athletic scores more

45%

level

26%

Elgin City scores more

29%

Forfar Athletic at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Forfar Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff