Forfar Athletic 0–0 East Fife: Result & Stats

Forfar Athletic

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

East Fife

12/30/2023

League Two · Round 18Station Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Forfar Athletic38%

×Draw27%

East Fife35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forfar AthleticExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.24

Forfar Athletic

1.30

East Fife

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 54 away

1.32

creates per match

1.30

1.18

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Forfar Athletic

1.32

East Fife

1.30

allows per match

Forfar Athletic

1.18

East Fife

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forfar Athletic ↓

East Fife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Forfar Athletic or draw

65%

Forfar Athletic or East Fife

73%

Draw or East Fife

62%

Winning margin

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

17%

East Fife wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

73%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

37%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

14%

East Fife 1+ goals

71%

East Fife 2+ goals

35%

East Fife 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

52%

East Fife (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forfar Athletic at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 90 matches

East Fife away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forfar Athletic attack 1.32 + East Fife defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

East Fife attack 1.30 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Forfar Athletic scores more

38%

level

27%

East Fife scores more

35%

Forfar Athletic at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Forfar Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff