Forest Green 1–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tranmere

J. Mills 12'

J. Norwood 27'

5/13/2019

League Two · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsThe New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Forest Green42%

×Draw27%

Tranmere31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.09

Forest Green

1.33

Tranmere

1.09

Forest Green creates 22% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 144 away

1.20

creates per match

0.97

1.22

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Forest Green

1.20

Tranmere

0.97

allows per match

Forest Green

1.22

Tranmere

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

69%

Forest Green or Tranmere

73%

Draw or Tranmere

58%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

19%

Tranmere wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

74%

Forest Green 2+ goals

38%

Forest Green 3+ goals

15%

Tranmere 1+ goals

66%

Tranmere 2+ goals

30%

Tranmere 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

58%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.20 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Forest Green scores more

42%

level

27%

Tranmere scores more

31%

Forest Green at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Mills

Forest Green · D

7.3

Match Events

12'

J. Mills↳ J. Mondal

16'

Ollie Banks

27'

J. Norwood↳ K. Morris

45'

Carl Winchester

46'

G. Williams← J. Mondal

66'

H. Gilmour← K. Morris

67'

Carl Winchester

67'

Carl Winchester

70'

L. James← D. Grubb

81'

S. McCoulsky← L. Collins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ForestTranmere

Overview

49%Possession51%

6Total Shots12

4Corners3

12Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots12

2On Target3

3Off Target6

1Blocked3

1Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

399Total Passes410

293Accurate Passes291

73%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards–

2Offsides1