Forest Green 0–1 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Exeter City

N. Atangana 5'

1/1/2020

League Two · Round 25The New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Forest Green36%

×Draw27%

Exeter City37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.29

Forest Green

1.26

Exeter City

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 97 away

1.20

creates per match

1.35

1.22

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Forest Green

1.20

Exeter City

1.35

allows per match

Forest Green

1.22

Exeter City

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

63%

Forest Green or Exeter City

73%

Draw or Exeter City

64%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

16%

Exeter City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

72%

Forest Green 2+ goals

36%

Forest Green 3+ goals

13%

Exeter City 1+ goals

72%

Exeter City 2+ goals

37%

Exeter City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

49%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.20 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Forest Green scores more

36%

level

27%

Exeter City scores more

37%

Exeter City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Maxted

Exeter City · G

8.7

Match Events

5'

37'

44'

46'

46'

46'

J. Aitchison← M. Stevens

58'

71'

71'

81'

81'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ForestExeter

Overview

64%Possession36%

19Total Shots2

8Corners6

7Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots2

5On Target1

6Off Target0

8Blocked1

13Inside Box1

6Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

470Total Passes264

357Accurate Passes160

76%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0