Foolad FC vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 61+ matches
Foolad FC50%
Naft Masjed Soleyman18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Foolad FC creates 105% more chances
Season form · 102 home / 61 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under76
- Over24
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No71
- Yes29
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Foolad FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Foolad FC at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.66 · 102 matches
Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Foolad FC attack 1.02 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13
Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.44 + Foolad FC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.55
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Foolad FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Esteghlal FC
Padideh Khorasan
Tractor Sazi
ZOB Ahan
SaipaFoolad FC
Sanat Naft
Nassaji Mazandaran
Paykan
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Machine Sazi FCNaft Masjed Soleyman
Sepidrood Rasht
Esteghlal KhuzestanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Foolad FC host Naft Masjed Soleyman on Thursday, 6 August 2020 at 16:30. The match is part of the Persian Gulf Pro League 2018/2019 season.
Foolad FC 1 – 0 Naft Masjed Soleyman
Foolad FC beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on August 6, 2020.
Goals: F. Ahmadzadeh (73').
The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.