Folgore 0–0 Murata: Result & Stats | Coppa Titano

Folgore

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Murata

11/24/2021

Coppa Titano · Quarter-finalsStadio di Dogana Ezio Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Folgore45%

×Draw32%

Murata23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FolgoreExpected goals in this matchMurata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.69

Folgore

1.10

Murata

0.69

Folgore creates 59% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.08

creates per match

0.88

0.50

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Folgore

1.08

Murata

0.88

allows per match

Folgore

0.50

Murata

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Folgore+0.00on par

Murata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Folgore ↓

Murata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Folgore or draw

77%

Folgore or Murata

68%

Draw or Murata

55%

Winning margin

Folgore wins by 2+

19%

Murata wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Folgore 1+ goals

67%

Folgore 2+ goals

30%

Folgore 3+ goals

10%

Murata 1+ goals

50%

Murata 2+ goals

15%

Murata 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Folgore (draw refunded)

66%

Murata (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Folgore at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Murata away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Folgore attack 1.08 + Murata defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Murata attack 0.88 + Folgore defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Folgore scores more

45%

level

32%

Murata scores more

23%

Folgore at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Folgore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

M. Nanni← N. Carlini

80'

R. Aluigi← A. Hirsch

84'

M. Casadei← D. Babboni

Folgore

Murata

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Lepri

80'▲R. Aluigi←▼A. Hirsch

Folgore substitutes

AluigiAstolfiSabbadiniPilottoFrancioni

Manager: A. Fabbri

66'▲M. Nanni←▼N. Carlini

84'▲M. Casadei←▼D. Babboni

Murata substitutes

NanniCasadeiTerenziVitaioliLelliCastelgrande

Coppa Titano: Folgore 0–0 Murata

Folgore and Murata drew 0-0 in Coppa Titano on November 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio di Dogana Ezio Conti in Dogana.

Folgore vs Murata — Coppa Titano 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Coppa Titano: Folgore 0–0 Murata