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Fluminense U17 vs Cruzeiro U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Fluminense U17
Fluminense U17
Preview
20:00
Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
9/5/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 15
52%
Fluminense U17
model favours
52%21%27%

Fluminense U17 score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fluminense U1752%
×Draw21%
Cruzeiro U1727%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense U17
2.07
Cruzeiro U17
1.43

Fluminense U17 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Fluminense U17
2.14
Cruzeiro U17
2.10

allows per match

Fluminense U17
0.76
Cruzeiro U17
2.00

finishing

Fluminense U17+0.00on par
Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense U17 ↓

Cruzeiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Fluminense U17 or draw
73%
Fluminense U17 or Cruzeiro U17
79%
Draw or Cruzeiro U17
48%

Winning margin

Fluminense U17 wins by 2+
31%
Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fluminense U17 1+ goals
87%
Fluminense U17 2+ goals
61%
Fluminense U17 3+ goals
34%
Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
76%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
42%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)
66%
Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense U17 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

Cruzeiro U17 away — creates 2.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense U17 attack 2.14 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.07

Cruzeiro U17 attack 2.10 + Fluminense U17 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fluminense U17 scores more
52%
level
21%
Cruzeiro U17 scores more
27%

Fluminense U17 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fluminense U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Cruzeiro U17 have won 4 in a row
  • Cruzeiro U17 score first in only 21% of matches
  • Fluminense U17 have scored in 10 games running
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (64% and 64% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
WWDLW
U17
WWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fluminense U17 face Cruzeiro U17 (Brasileiro U17)

Brasileiro U17 returns with Fluminense U17 hosting Cruzeiro U17. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.