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Fluminense de Feira U20 vs Bahia U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Fluminense de Feira U20
Fluminense de Feira U20
Preview
20:00
Bahia U20
Bahia U20
7/25/2026Baiano U20Baiano U20 · Final
38%
Fluminense de Feira U20
model favours
38%24%38%

Bahia U20 have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fluminense de Feira U2038%
×Draw24%
Bahia U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense de Feira U20
1.54
Bahia U20
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 29 away

creates per match

Fluminense de Feira U20
2.24
Bahia U20
2.07

allows per match

Fluminense de Feira U20
1.00
Bahia U20
0.83

finishing

Fluminense de Feira U20+0.00on par
Bahia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense de Feira U20 ↓

Bahia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fluminense de Feira U20 or draw
62%
Fluminense de Feira U20 or Bahia U20
76%
Draw or Bahia U20
62%

Winning margin

Fluminense de Feira U20 wins by 2+
19%
Bahia U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fluminense de Feira U20 1+ goals
79%
Fluminense de Feira U20 2+ goals
45%
Fluminense de Feira U20 3+ goals
20%
Bahia U20 1+ goals
78%
Bahia U20 2+ goals
45%
Bahia U20 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fluminense de Feira U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Bahia U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense de Feira U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Bahia U20 away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense de Feira U20 attack 2.24 + Bahia U20 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bahia U20 attack 2.07 + Fluminense de Feira U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fluminense de Feira U20 scores more
38%
level
24%
Bahia U20 scores more
38%

Fluminense de Feira U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fluminense de Feira U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bahia U20 score first in only 22% of matches
  • Both teams score in 73% of Fluminense de Feira U20’s matches
  • 65% of Bahia U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 41% of Bahia U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Fluminense de Feira U20 and Bahia U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LWWDW
U20
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fluminense de Feira U20 host Bahia U20

July 25, 2026: Fluminense de Feira U20 take on Bahia U20 in Baiano U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.