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Florida Elite vs Daytona — USL League Two 2018

Florida Elite
Florida Elite
PST
23:00
Daytona
Daytona
5/30/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 15Bartram Trail High School (Orangedale, Florida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Florida Elite48%
×Draw30%
Daytona22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Florida Elite
1.22
Daytona
0.74

Florida Elite creates 65% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 3 away

creates per match

Florida Elite
2.11
Daytona
0.67

allows per match

Florida Elite
0.81
Daytona
0.33

finishing

Florida Elite+0.00on par
Daytona+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Florida Elite ↓

Daytona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Florida Elite or draw
78%
Florida Elite or Daytona
70%
Draw or Daytona
52%

Winning margin

Florida Elite wins by 2+
21%
Daytona wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Florida Elite 1+ goals
70%
Florida Elite 2+ goals
34%
Florida Elite 3+ goals
12%
Daytona 1+ goals
52%
Daytona 2+ goals
17%
Daytona 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Florida Elite (draw refunded)
68%
Daytona (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Florida Elite at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

Daytona away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Florida Elite attack 2.11 + Daytona defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Daytona attack 0.67 + Florida Elite defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Florida Elite scores more
48%
level
30%
Daytona scores more
22%

Florida Elite at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Florida Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Florida Elite host Daytona

May 30, 2020: Florida Elite take on Daytona in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Florida Elite host Daytona at Bartram Trail High School (Orangedale, Florida).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.