Floreşti 0–1 Dinamo-Auto: Result & Stats

Floreşti

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo-Auto

A. Novicov 47'

7/24/2021

Super Liga · Round 3Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Floreşti38%

×Draw22%

Dinamo-Auto40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FloreştiExpected goals in this matchDinamo-Auto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.83

Floreşti

1.77

Dinamo-Auto

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 55 away

1.31

creates per match

1.35

2.31

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Floreşti

1.31

Dinamo-Auto

1.35

allows per match

Floreşti

2.31

Dinamo-Auto

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Floreşti+0.00on par

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floreşti ↓

Dinamo-Auto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Floreşti or draw

60%

Floreşti or Dinamo-Auto

78%

Draw or Dinamo-Auto

62%

Winning margin

Floreşti wins by 2+

19%

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Floreşti 1+ goals

83%

Floreşti 2+ goals

53%

Floreşti 3+ goals

26%

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals

84%

Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals

54%

Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Floreşti (draw refunded)

48%

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floreşti at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.31 · 64 matches

Dinamo-Auto away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floreşti attack 1.31 + Dinamo-Auto defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.77

Dinamo-Auto attack 1.35 + Floreşti defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Floreşti scores more

38%

level

22%

Dinamo-Auto scores more

40%

Dinamo-Auto at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo-Auto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

A. Novicov

60'

G. Coșcodan← E. Rebenja

73'

V. Ghenaitis← S. Mateescu

82'

D. Lisu← V. Covcenco

87'

D. Macalici← O. Qurbanlı

87'

A. Genaev← D. Puscas

90+2'

V. Cemîrtan← O. Bulat

Floreşti

Dinamo-Auto

16

Bardîș

30

Gafina

4

⚽

Novicov

5

Chiperi

19

Mihaliov

8

▼

6

22

13

9

▼

Bulat

21

▼

1

5

25

4

55

▼

14

19

9

30

▼

Mateescu

23

Mandricen

18

▼

Rebenja

Manager: I. Groşev

60'▲G. Coșcodan←▼E. Rebenja

73'▲V. Ghenaitis←▼S. Mateescu

82'▲D. Lisu←▼V. Covcenco

Floreşti substitutes

10Coșcodan99Ghenaitis28Lisu12Coval15Bacalov77Pleșca

Manager: I. Dobrovolskiy

87'▲D. Macalici←▼O. Qurbanlı

87'▲A. Genaev←▼D. Puscas

90+2'▲V. Cemîrtan←▼O. Bulat

Dinamo-Auto substitutes

20Macalici26Genaev10Cemîrtan1Apostolachi7Schițenco17Cuzmenco18Blajchin27Manole