Flora Tallinn 1–0 Vaprus: Result & Stats | Cup

Flora Tallinn

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vaprus

11/25/2023

Cup · Round of 32Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Flora Tallinn69%

×Draw17%

Vaprus15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flora TallinnExpected goals in this matchVaprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.17

Flora Tallinn

2.69

Vaprus

1.17

Flora Tallinn creates 130% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

3.77

creates per match

1.80

0.54

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Flora Tallinn

3.77

Vaprus

1.80

allows per match

Flora Tallinn

0.54

Vaprus

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Vaprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora Tallinn ↓

Vaprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Flora Tallinn or draw

85%

Flora Tallinn or Vaprus

83%

Draw or Vaprus

31%

Winning margin

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+

48%

Vaprus wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals

93%

Flora Tallinn 2+ goals

74%

Flora Tallinn 3+ goals

49%

Vaprus 1+ goals

69%

Vaprus 2+ goals

33%

Vaprus 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)

83%

Vaprus (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora Tallinn at home — creates 3.77, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Vaprus away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora Tallinn attack 3.77 + Vaprus defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.69

Vaprus attack 1.80 + Flora Tallinn defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Flora Tallinn scores more

69%

level

17%

Vaprus scores more

15%

Flora Tallinn at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff