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Flora Tallinn vs The New Saints — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Preview
16:00
The New Saints
The New Saints
7/23/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundA. Le Coq Arena
39%
The New Saints
model favours
36%25%39%

Flora Tallinn have scored in 14 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Flora Tallinn36%
×Draw25%
The New Saints39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flora Tallinn
1.41
The New Saints
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Flora Tallinn
1.25
The New Saints
1.56

allows per match

Flora Tallinn
1.38
The New Saints
1.56

finishing

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par
The New Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora Tallinn ↓

The New Saints →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Flora Tallinn or draw
61%
Flora Tallinn or The New Saints
75%
Draw or The New Saints
64%

Winning margin

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
17%
The New Saints wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
76%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
41%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
17%
The New Saints 1+ goals
77%
The New Saints 2+ goals
43%
The New Saints 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
48%
The New Saints (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora Tallinn at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

The New Saints away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora Tallinn attack 1.25 + The New Saints defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

The New Saints attack 1.56 + Flora Tallinn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Flora Tallinn scores more
36%
level
25%
The New Saints scores more
39%

The New Saints at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "The New Saints will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Flora Tallinn score first in only 20% of matches
  • The New Saints score first in only 20% of matches
  • 77% of Flora Tallinn’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 32% of Flora Tallinn’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Flora Tallinn and The New Saints have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tallinn
LDLWW
Saints
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flora Tallinn vs The New Saints — Match Preview

Flora Tallinn face The New Saints on July 23, 2026 in this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Flora Tallinn host The New Saints at A. Le Coq Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.