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Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3EJL Jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Flora Tallinn28%
×Draw28%
FC Levadia Tallinn44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flora Tallinn
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.33

FC Levadia Tallinn creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Flora Tallinn
1.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.33

allows per match

Flora Tallinn
1.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67

finishing

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par
FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora Tallinn ↓

FC Levadia Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Flora Tallinn or draw
56%
Flora Tallinn or FC Levadia Tallinn
72%
Draw or FC Levadia Tallinn
72%

Winning margin

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
10%
FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
63%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
26%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
8%
FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals
74%
FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals
38%
FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
39%
FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora Tallinn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

FC Levadia Tallinn away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora Tallinn attack 1.33 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 1.33 + Flora Tallinn defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Flora Tallinn scores more
28%
level
28%
FC Levadia Tallinn scores more
44%

FC Levadia Tallinn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Levadia Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn

FC Levadia Tallinn beat Flora Tallinn 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at EJL Jalgpallihall in Tallinn.