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Flora II vs Pärnu — Esiliiga A 2026

Flora II
Flora II
CANC
16:00
Pärnu
Pärnu
7/31/2021Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Flora II62%
×Draw19%
Pärnu19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flora II
2.38
Pärnu
1.27

Flora II creates 87% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 43 away

creates per match

Flora II
2.39
Pärnu
1.12

allows per match

Flora II
1.43
Pärnu
2.37

finishing

Flora II+0.00on par
Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora II ↓

Pärnu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Flora II or draw
81%
Flora II or Pärnu
81%
Draw or Pärnu
38%

Winning margin

Flora II wins by 2+
40%
Pärnu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Flora II 1+ goals
91%
Flora II 2+ goals
68%
Flora II 3+ goals
42%
Pärnu 1+ goals
72%
Pärnu 2+ goals
36%
Pärnu 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Flora II (draw refunded)
76%
Pärnu (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora II at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.43 · 125 matches

Pärnu away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora II attack 2.39 + Pärnu defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.38

Pärnu attack 1.12 + Flora II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Flora II scores more
62%
level
19%
Pärnu scores more
19%

Flora II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Flora II host Pärnu

July 31, 2021: Flora II take on Pärnu in Esiliiga A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.