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Flint City Bucks vs Grand Rapids — USL League Two 2018

Flint City Bucks
Flint City Bucks
PST
23:00
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
5/16/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 4Atwood Stadium (Flint, Michigan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Flint City Bucks41%
×Draw21%
Grand Rapids37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint City Bucks
1.97
Grand Rapids
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 7 away

creates per match

Flint City Bucks
2.80
Grand Rapids
2.86

allows per match

Flint City Bucks
0.86
Grand Rapids
1.14

finishing

Flint City Bucks+0.00on par
Grand Rapids+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint City Bucks ↓

Grand Rapids →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Flint City Bucks or draw
63%
Flint City Bucks or Grand Rapids
79%
Draw or Grand Rapids
59%

Winning margin

Flint City Bucks wins by 2+
23%
Grand Rapids wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Flint City Bucks 1+ goals
86%
Flint City Bucks 2+ goals
58%
Flint City Bucks 3+ goals
31%
Grand Rapids 1+ goals
84%
Grand Rapids 2+ goals
55%
Grand Rapids 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Flint City Bucks (draw refunded)
53%
Grand Rapids (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint City Bucks at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.86 · 49 matches

Grand Rapids away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint City Bucks attack 2.80 + Grand Rapids defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.97

Grand Rapids attack 2.86 + Flint City Bucks defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Flint City Bucks scores more
41%
level
21%
Grand Rapids scores more
37%

Flint City Bucks at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Flint City Bucks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Flint City Bucks host Grand Rapids

May 16, 2020: Flint City Bucks take on Grand Rapids in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Flint City Bucks host Grand Rapids at Atwood Stadium (Flint, Michigan).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.