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Fleetwood Town vs York — League Two 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
Preview
14:00
York
York
4/3/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 39Highbury Stadium
42%
Fleetwood Town
model favours
42%27%31%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fleetwood Town42%
×Draw27%
York31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.35
York
1.12

Fleetwood Town creates 21% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.31
York
1.13

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.11
York
1.40

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
69%
Fleetwood Town or York
73%
Draw or York
58%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
19%
York wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
74%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
39%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
15%
York 1+ goals
67%
York 2+ goals
31%
York 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
58%
York (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

York away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.31 + York defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

York attack 1.13 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
42%
level
27%
York scores more
31%

Fleetwood Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • Fleetwood Town and York have never met before
  • 43% of York’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Town
WWWWD
York
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town face York (League Two)

League Two returns with Fleetwood Town hosting York. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fleetwood Town host York at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.