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Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
Preview
15:00
Tranmere
Tranmere
11/14/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 15Highbury Stadium
Big match
49%
Fleetwood Town
model favours
49%26%26%

Their last 5 meetings averaged just 0.8 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Fleetwood Town49%
×Draw26%
Tranmere26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.52
Tranmere
1.03

Fleetwood Town creates 48% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.61
Tranmere
1.15

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
0.91
Tranmere
1.42

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.43scores less
Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
74%
Fleetwood Town or Tranmere
74%
Draw or Tranmere
51%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
25%
Tranmere wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
78%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
45%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
20%
Tranmere 1+ goals
64%
Tranmere 2+ goals
28%
Tranmere 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
65%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.61 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
49%
level
26%
Tranmere scores more
26%

Fleetwood Town at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
Tranmere
Balanced
50%Possession50%
68%Pass accuracy67%
12.0Shots12.0
1.41xGBiggest gap1.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Fleetwood TownTranmere

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Fleetwood Town
3
Draws
1
Tranmere
Avg goals: 0.8BTTS: 20%
0–00–10–00–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
WWWWD
Tranmere
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere — Match Preview

Fleetwood Town face Tranmere on November 14, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Fleetwood Town host Tranmere at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.