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Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham — League Two 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
Preview
14:00
Rotherham
Rotherham
10/17/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Highbury Stadium
Big match
43%
Fleetwood Town
model favours
43%27%30%
1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fleetwood Town43%
×Draw27%
Rotherham30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.34
Rotherham
1.06

Fleetwood Town creates 26% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.31
Rotherham
1.00

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.11
Rotherham
1.37

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
70%
Fleetwood Town or Rotherham
73%
Draw or Rotherham
57%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
20%
Rotherham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
74%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
39%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
15%
Rotherham 1+ goals
65%
Rotherham 2+ goals
29%
Rotherham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
59%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.31 + Rotherham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
43%
level
27%
Rotherham scores more
30%

Fleetwood Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Town
WWWWD
Rotherham
WDDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town face Rotherham (League Two)

League Two returns with Fleetwood Town hosting Rotherham. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fleetwood Town host Rotherham at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.