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Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
Preview
14:00
Rochdale
Rochdale
9/26/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Highbury Stadium
Big match
44%
Fleetwood Town
model favours
44%28%29%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Fleetwood Town44%
×Draw28%
Rochdale29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.33
Rochdale
1.03

Fleetwood Town creates 29% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 56 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.31
Rochdale
0.95

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.11
Rochdale
1.36

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
71%
Fleetwood Town or Rochdale
72%
Draw or Rochdale
56%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
20%
Rochdale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
74%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
38%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
15%
Rochdale 1+ goals
64%
Rochdale 2+ goals
28%
Rochdale 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
60%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.31 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
44%
level
28%
Rochdale scores more
29%

Fleetwood Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
Rochdale
Balanced
49%Possession51%
68%Pass accuracy70%
12.1ShotsBiggest gap10.3
1.39xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Fleetwood TownRochdale

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Fleetwood Town
2
Draws
1
Rochdale
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 80%
1–01–22–11–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
WWWWD
Rochdale
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town face Rochdale (League Two)

League Two returns with Fleetwood Town hosting Rochdale. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fleetwood Town host Rochdale at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.