Fleetwood Town vs Newport County

Fleetwood Town

Preview

15:00

Newport County

2/20/2027

League Two · Round 32Highbury Stadium

Big match

59%

Fleetwood Town

model favours

59%22%19%

Newport County score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Fleetwood Town59%

×Draw22%

Newport County19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchNewport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.98

Fleetwood Town

1.93

Newport County

0.98

Fleetwood Town creates 97% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.73

creates per match

1.11

0.85

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.73

Newport County

1.11

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

0.85

Newport County

2.12

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.30scores less

Newport County-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Newport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

81%

Fleetwood Town or Newport County

78%

Draw or Newport County

41%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

35%

Newport County wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

85%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

57%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

30%

Newport County 1+ goals

62%

Newport County 2+ goals

26%

Newport County 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

76%

Newport County (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.85 · 7 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.12 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.73 + Newport County defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.93

Newport County attack 1.11 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

59%

level

22%

Newport County scores more

19%

Fleetwood Town at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Fleetwood Town

Defensively solid

Newport County

Balanced

50%Possession49%

68%Pass accuracy67%

11.9Shots11.5

1.46xGBiggest gap1.12

Fleetwood TownNewport County

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

4

Fleetwood Town

3

Draws

1

Newport County

Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 25%

0–02–02–00–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Town

WWWWD

County

DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town face Newport County (League Two)

League Two returns with Fleetwood Town hosting Newport County. Match starts February 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fleetwood Town host Newport County at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Fleetwood Town vs Newport County — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Fleetwood Town face Newport County (League Two)