Fleetwood Town 0–1 Ipswich: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ipswich

K. Jackson 58'

10/5/2019

League One · Round 12Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Fleetwood Town35%

×Draw28%

Ipswich37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.21

Fleetwood Town

1.16

Ipswich

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 84 away

1.30

creates per match

1.27

1.14

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.30

Ipswich

1.27

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.14

Ipswich

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

63%

Fleetwood Town or Ipswich

72%

Draw or Ipswich

65%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

14%

Ipswich wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

69%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

32%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

11%

Ipswich 1+ goals

70%

Ipswich 2+ goals

34%

Ipswich 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

48%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.14 · 138 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.30 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ipswich attack 1.27 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

35%

level

28%

Ipswich scores more

37%

Ipswich at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

L. Woolfenden

Ipswich · D

7.5

Match Events

20'

James Norwood

21'

Paul Coutts

43'

Cole Skuse

46'

G. Edwards← K. Vincent-Young

50'

58'

59'

71'

72'

74'

74'

77'

A. Hunter← K. Dempsey

88'

90'

90'

90'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodIpswich

Overview

48%Possession52%

6Total Shots7

7Corners4

17Fouls19

Shots

6Total Shots7

0On Target2

3Off Target4

3Blocked1

3Inside Box6

3Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

350Total Passes386

218Accurate Passes241

62%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls19

4Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1

League One: Fleetwood Town 0–1 Ipswich

Ipswich beat Fleetwood Town 1-0 in League One on October 5, 2019.

Goals: K. Jackson (58').

Ipswich controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 6.

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood, Lancashire.

Fleetwood Town vs Ipswich — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Fleetwood Town 0–1 Ipswich